In 2002, Richard Florida published “The Rise of the Creative Class.” His thesis was simple: creative people would fuel a city/region’s economy. The way to get those people was to nurture talent, utilize technology, and offer a tolerant atmosphere. In the book, Florida ranked all the principal cities of the U.S. according to their ability to capitalize on the Creative Class. Lexington was ranked 9th of 63 in the small cities category, meaning that according to Florida’s insights, we had the right elements to succeed.
We’re not doing so hot. Read on……
Here’s the list of the top 63 small cities from the book:
1. Madison
2. Des Moines
3. Santa Barbara
4. Melbourne
5. Boise City
6. Huntsville, AL
7. Lansing, MI
8. Binghamton, NY
9. Lexington
10. New London, CT
Florida also ranked the bottom 10 cities, those who just didn’t have what it takes to succeed with the Creative Class.
The bottom 10 are:
63. Shreveport, LA
62. Ocala, FL
61. Visalia, CA
60. Killeen, TX
59. Fayetteville, NC
58. York, PA
57. Fayetteville, AR
56. Beaumont, TX
55. Lakeland, FL
54. Hickory, NC
If we accept Florida’s reasoning, the Bluegrass should have had a stellar decade in terms of job growth, gross regional product increases, and median income growth. (Florida was ranking cities, not their metros, but a realistic appraisal must include the entire region – this research does)
So, how we doin? Utilizing Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Economic Analysis numbers, we will see our relative ranking not just against the top 10 of the Creative Class cities, but also the bottom 10.
- The Bluegrass ranks 8th of the top 10 in terms of Job growth from 1999-2009: the Bluegrass region has 3,500 LESS jobs today than we had in 1999, a decline of 1.4%. Yes that’s right, 10 years, less jobs. Madison, by contrast, added nearly 30,000 new jobs, an increase of 9.1% from 1999. Huntsville, Al is at the top with a 16.9% increase in jobs. The Bluegrass rates only above Lansing, MI and Binghamton, NY.
- All but 1 of the bottom 10 outpace The Bluegrass in terms of job growth from 1999-2009: Of all the cities destined to fail in terms of job growth, they should be those who rank at the bottom of Creative Class attractiveness, right? Except that every city in the bottom 10 had significant job gains over the last 10 years, the only exception being Hickory, N.C. which lost over 19% of its jobs. Our SEC rival city, Fayetteville, Arkansas, added 50,000 new jobs, an increase of 32.5%.
- The Bluegrass ranks 8th out of the top 10 in terms of Gross Metropolitan Product growth from 2001-2008: this statistic measures the amount of value that workers add to the economy, an important component for companies when they seek to determine great locations to do business. The Bluegrass’s GMP grew by 35% from 2001-2008, an average of 4.4% per year. The top 7 all had rates well over 40%, with Huntsville having an astounding increase of 63.9%. Again, only Lansing and Binghamton were lower than The Bluegrass.
- All but 1 of the bottom 10 outpace The Bluegrass in terms of Gross Metropolitan Product growth from 2001-2008: Again, of the 10 bottom communities, those with little Creative Class attractiveness, all but one outperformed the Bluegrass. Only Hickory had a lower increase than the Bluegrass. The next lowest GMP increase, Lakeland, Florida’s 46.5%, is 11.5% more than the Bluegrass’.
- The Bluegrass has the 4th highest Unemployment Rate in the top 10: The Bluegrass unemployment rate in June 2009 was 9.1%. Only Lansing (12.1%), Melbourne (10.8%), and Boise (9.7%) had higher rates. Des Moines’ rate was 5.6%.
- The Bluegrass ranks above 6 of the bottom 10 in Unemployment Rate: Hickory, NC has a shocking rate of 15.3% – and this is just the “official” number. It is likely that closer to 25% of the population there is either unemployed or underemployed. Fayetteville, AR has a rate of 6.2%
- The Bluegrass falls in the middle of Median Household Income growth 2000-2008: Madison’s household incomes grew by 45% over the period; they increased in the Bluegrass by 27.3%. Nothing special here, but unfortunately, this is the one stat that really means something to the average person: how much money do we have?
The bottom line from all this is clear: we have not leveraged our innate advantages. We have so much to offer, yet we are not living up to our potential. And this was during the so-called “growth years.” What will happen as we enter a period of economic stagnation? We’ve got to do a better job of integrating the Creative Class into the economy of our region. But we cant do this without a vision of what our economy really is. Read the ResilientLEX Manifesto at the top of the page to see my thoughts on how we should do it.
excellent piece steve
this looks like the beginning of a 30-45 minute presentation for the creative cities conference in Lex. It also looks like a very good BIZLEX piece- have you approached tom about a column?
thanks Van – you are right, something like this should help set the context at the creative cities conference
I’ll see if Phil and Anthony will let me do it….
When will everyone stop talking about what we are NOT doing and begin giving the creative ideas, and I mean concrete creative ideas, some ideas with a financial backing to carry them through. I hear a lot of pie-in-the-sky talk from so many directions, yet no one puts his money on the line to try and change the status quo.
Please, lets stop waiting for the government to back something, like a rich uncle. DO something and make them tell you WHY you are not allowed to do what you want.
Thanks for the comment Mr. Sweeper
To me, the value of the creative class is in helping us weather the transition that we are in so that we emerge much more resilient on the other side. I firmly believe that the idea that having a creative class will somehow save our city’s economy is a fantasy.
We need bright minds to help us navigate the transition time. I will definately step up my proposals in that regard.
Steve
Pingback: Does Lexington Need the Creative Class? « Bluegrass reVISIONS