What’s your scenario?

(Even here in lil ole’ Lex, a tsunami is coming.  And we are standing on the shore.  Looking inland.  Why are so many smart people consumed with the arguments of the past instead of helping us prepare for the real future that awaits?)

In order to best prepare for the real future that awaits us, it would behoove us to imagine the various possibilities of that future.   Simple scenario planning.  I’ve created a framework of five possible scenarios.  I will flesh each out in the coming weeks.   What am I missing?

Scenario 1:  “It all gets better from here!”

Scenario 2: “We can live with the way things are right now.”

Scenario 3:  “Ups and downs.”

Scenario 4:  “It’s not getting better.”

Scenario 5:  “Oh shit!”

——

Scenario 1:  “It all gets better from here!”

In this scenario economic growth returns, the global environment stabilizes, energy use is basically limitless. 

Scenario 2: “We can live with the way things are right now.”

In this scenario, we accept that there are some limits to economic growth, that climate change is something we should work to limit, and that energy costs will increase over time.

Scenario 3:  “Ups and downs.”

In this scenario, we struggle with unpredictable conditions – one minute the economy looks like it’s recovering, one minute it doesn’t.  Climate shifts brings heavy rains and long dry spells.  Energy costs fluctuate wildly.

Scenario 4:  “It’s not getting better.”

In this scenario, we experience year after year of recession, climate impacts intensify, energy costs eat up ever more of business and personal income.

 Scenario 5:  “Oh shit!”

In this scenario,  a global economic crash occurs instantly, climate change is deemed  irreversible, and energy becomes exceedingly scarce.

In each of these, there may be shades above and below the threshold, meaning that there may be many more than five scenarios to address.

I’ll begin putting each in context to what its means for us here.  All comments and thoughts welcome.

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